Should I invest in bonds in 2024?
As inflation finally seems to be coming under control, and growth is slowing as the global economy feels the full impact of higher interest rates, 2024 could be a compelling year for bonds.
You would know, with your I Bond, that if you purchase in April 2024 you will get at least 1.3% above inflation. That fixed rate, giving you a return above inflation, is the big value in I Bonds right now.
We believe the municipal market is poised for improvement in 2024. The Fed's anticipated easing this year should bolster demand for municipal bonds. If investor sentiment shifts positively, as we expect, strengthening demand could absorb secondary market supply and act as a catalyst for spread tightening.
The composite rate for I bonds issued from November 2023 through April 2024 is 5.27%.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 20-Year Value (Purchased May 2000) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $109.52 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $219.04 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $547.60 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $1,095.20 |
The cons of investing in I-bonds
There's actually a limit on how much you can invest in I-bonds per year. The annual maximum in purchases is $10,000 worth of electronic I-bonds, although in some cases, you may be able to purchase an additional $5,000 worth of paper I-bonds using your tax refund.
Attractive absolute yields
Like most other fixed income investments, municipal bond yields have risen significantly since late 2021 and are now at levels that largely haven't been reached during the past decade.
Municipal bonds, like all bonds, pose interest rate risk. The longer the term of the bond, the greater the risk. If interest rates rise during the term of your bond, you're losing out on a better rate. This will also cause the bond you are holding to decline in value.
High-quality bond investments remain attractive. With yields on investment-grade-rated1 bonds still near 15-year highs,2 we believe investors should continue to consider intermediate- and longer-term bonds to lock in those high yields.
Where are bonds headed in 2024?
Yields to Trend Lower
Key central bank rates and bond yields remain high globally and are likely to remain elevated well into 2024 before retreating. Further, the chance of higher policy rates from here is slim; the potential for rates to decline is much higher.
Mortgage rates are expected to decline when the Federal Open Market Committee cuts the benchmark interest rate, which is likely to happen in the second half of 2024. But as long as inflation runs hotter than the Fed would like, rates will remain elevated at their current levels.
Some experts predict the new rate could drop to around 4.27% based on inflation and other factors. But there's still a chance to lock in six months of the 5.27% yearly rate for new I bonds before May 1, assuming you haven't exceeded the purchase limit for 2024.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
| Stock | Expected Change in Stock Price* |
|---|---|
| Tesla Inc. (TSLA) | 61% |
| Mastercard Inc. (MA) | 14.2% |
| Salesforce Inc. (CRM) | 7.2% |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) | 11.3% |
1. Positive returns -- but smaller than in 2023. I think that the overall stock market will deliver positive returns in 2024. However, I expect those returns to be somewhat smaller than they were last year.
| Total Price | Total Value | YTD Interest |
|---|---|---|
| $1,000.00 | $2,094.00 | $89.60 |
Series EE savings bonds are a low-risk way to save money. They earn interest regularly for 30 years (or until you cash them if you do that before 30 years). For EE bonds you buy now, we guarantee that the bond will double in value in 20 years, even if we have to add money at 20 years to make that happen.
| Total Price | Total Value | YTD Interest |
|---|---|---|
| $500.00 | $2,127.80 | $50.40 |
If you're investing for the long term, a U.S. savings bond is a good choice. The Series I savings bond has a variable rate that can give the investor the benefit of future interest rate increases. If you're saving for the short term, a CD offers greater flexibility than a savings bond.
What happens to I bonds if inflation goes down?
If inflation runs hotter, the rate can go up. If inflation cools off, the rate can go down. The fixed rate portion of an I Bond remains with the life of the bond. The fixed rate is 1.3% for I Bonds issued from November 2023 through April.
Bottom line. I bonds, with their inflation-adjusted return, safeguard the investor's purchasing power during periods of high inflation. On the other hand, EE Bonds offer predictable returns with a fixed-interest rate and a guaranteed doubling of value if held for 20 years.
During a bear market environment, bonds are typically viewed as safe investments. That's because when stock prices fall, bond prices tend to rise. When a bear market goes hand in hand with a recession, it's typical to see bond prices increasing and yields falling just before the recession reaches its deepest point.
Are all bonds taxed? Bonds are divided into two classes: taxable and tax-exempt. A bond's tax-exempt status applies only to the bond's interest income. Any capital gains generated from selling a bond or bond fund before its maturity date is taxable, regardless of the type of bond.
The principal difference between municipal bonds and Treasury bonds, aside from the credit considerations, is that municipal bonds are tax-exempt, that is interest is exempt from federal income taxation.
